Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future too.

— Marcus Aurelius


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Thursday, January 12, 2012

Awaiting ECB, BOE looking at EURUSD and GBPUSD

Looking at the EURUSD chart and awaiting ECB decision... 2 things
1. Markets are always pricing in future developments as perceived by investors
2. Market knows and has known since teh surprise rate cut by the ECB that interest rates will not be going UP in the Eurozone..

SO ...EURO shorts still at record highs...if we get a move down on the ECB news BEWARE if it is short lived..a move down and rally could be the start of a bigger short squeeze.. see chart here

Looking at cable...slightly different scenario...looks like sentiment has turned very negative and many are highlighting the break to new lows and support at 1.53.  Also many pointing out the BEARISH HEAD and SHOULDERS formation.

However, a move to 1.52 would bring in trendline support, and if EURO rallies against dollar the it is hard to see cable falling dramatically.  So a quick shake out and a rally may be on the cards...

Remember H&S patterns have a high probability of failure.   That said if the selling does accelerate, then one would have to go with it.

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