Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future too.

— Marcus Aurelius


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Monday, January 23, 2012

Crude thoughts

Looking at the daily chart of Crude (WTI)  does it look BULLISH or BEARISH?

Interesting things to note..when trend is down and RSI gets to 50 or just above ..it seems right to sell, and conversely when trend is up and RSI drops to 44 it seems right to buy.

So where are we now?

Trended down from May 2011 to October 2011, possible double bottom at 76 level..

Rallied to 106, and now seems to be consolidating (or TOPPING).  Support seems to be at 93.

So what if we take a BIGGER view i.e. step back and look at the longer term?

Look at the weekly chart.
After the rally to all time highs ($190) in 2008 Crude collapsed and traded down to 62.  
Now it has traded in a range with slight upward bias, retracing just over 38.2 % of the big fall from 190.

so basing or another leg down?
Resistance at 106 a break above that and we may see a new leg up (possibly coinciding with equity markets rally)
A break below 90 and we may retest the recent lows (70 $)
Looking at the general trends in the developing world it would seem that demand for oil will only go up in the future, especially looking at Africa, S America and Asia.  Plus tensions in Iran, Nigeria etc may also support higher oil prices.

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