Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future too.

— Marcus Aurelius


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Tuesday, February 14, 2012


Rally from 1.26 to 1.33 has stalled.  Is that it?

Despite today's downgrades form Moody's the euro recovered after an initial sell off. making recent action more likely to be a CONSOLIDATION of the move up, rather than TOPPING.

Key level, 1.30 (a break below there would change scenario to bearish and at least a retest of the lows at 1.26)

Otherwise, above that level, suggests a continuation of the rally to min 1.35 and possible 1.40 as shown in the chart below.  Sentiment is quick to turn bearish, and short positioning still relatively large.

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