Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future too.

— Marcus Aurelius


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Thursday, February 23, 2012

Waiting for the exhaustion rally..

Equity markets have been doing relatively little this week..Likely scenario seems to be an upside break out for most markets which will be received with euphoria on mainstream TV (think CNBC!), and will probably signal the start of the correction (markets do not go up in straight line forever).  The charts below show the case for upside break outs, also some warning signs in the tech sector (NDX, AAPL). I give it 70 % probability?

OR we fail to break out and then correct from here. 30 % probability?

Finding support at high levels around 5910 after poking above resistance at 5920. If move gains traction then expect move to 6000/6100.

struggling near resistance at 6930.  Possible negative divergence setting up on daily chart.  6930/6950 was support level various times during 2011.

Nasdaq 100 

Overbought under-performing this week.  Negative divergence forming.  Also main component AAPL, possible negative divergence.


Negative divergence forming price/RSI.  Warning signal.  may get a new high but if unconfirmed by RSI sell off should be imminent.  


struggling near 13,000 level.  Rising wedge formation (bearish), 13,00o psychological round number, and break out there could see 13100/13200 quickly, before a significant reversal probably targeting 12500

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