Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future too.

— Marcus Aurelius


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Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Part I second week 2013

After a strong (short) first week, week 2 finds markets consolidating and despite the strong rally last week, so far have not given back much.  

All markets are consolidating
AAPL drags on NDX (but did rally 10 % last week)
FTSE broke to new highs on Friday.
DAX continues consolidation.

Dollar rallied hard on FOMC minutes but this week giving back some of gains : ready for a FALL?
obviously EURO and POUND vs dollar fell after reaching obvious resistance at 1.33 and 1.63 respectively, now is the fall a correction and ready to go higher?

YEN remains weak


FTSE daily

Can see a break above descending trendline @ 5904/5910  then a classic pull back to retest that level, and then rallied towards the next resistance at 6100/6120

So we should have solid support at 5900, and resistance at 6100. Shorter tern 6000 looks like psychological support,

BUY support and sell resistance, BE WARY of sustained break above 6120 market will then be in position to attack the highs (minor resistance at 6500) 

Also a decline below 5900 may call into question new high scenario

DAX daily

DAX has had a large rally off the November 2011 low.  Despite being overbought has not retraced mush, so could be in a sideways consolidation.  Another push up to around 8,000 possible before larger retrace.

EURO daily

Euro attacked 1.33 resistance level, but was overbought.  The fall to 1.30 has reset the O/B conditions quickly.
A fall below 1.2950 signals deeper correction
Sentiment seems bearish with talk of Double and Triple top at 1.33
expecting another go at 1.33 which succeeds and euro rallies to test 1,35 on way to 1.40

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