Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future too.

— Marcus Aurelius


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Thursday, January 17, 2013


January week 3.

Markets have consolidated the recent gains, most notably the DAX, which had a month of up days with little correction.  FTSE flirting with 6100/6070 as support.  EURO broke through 1.33 and looks to be back testing that level, holding above 1.325.  Cable notable under performer clinging to 1.60 level.

S&P very tight range 1465/1473

Oil, gold and silver have also held their rallies, as copper consolidates

OPEX week so not expecting major change this week. 

AAPL trading dominated by emotions.  $500 key PSYCHOLOGICAL level was broken mid week, and subsequently recovered.  The POSITIVE divergence on the DAILY chart continues and it is possible that the drop below $500 has now cleared out weak hands and "emotional " selling.  AAPL has also caused to NDX to under perform so a turnaround should be reflected many times in the NDX


FTSE Daily

May still be a move down but would not expect 6000 to be reached, more likely 6050 if anything
More likely scenario is a break higher once this consolidation is finished with.  Targeting 6400

DAX daily

DAX also consolidating (pink box) after the strong rally from November low.(light blue arrow)
Also looks like it will be on the way to new highs once this is over.
Possible for a scary move down MAX 7560 (in the scheme of things not that big a fall, but would shake out any weak hands).  More likely we have seen the extent of this consolidation, and a break above 7800 , targets 8000 and maybe higher. 

EURO daily

The EURUSD looks to be headed higher 1.35 first target.  Projected path pull back and then rally further towards 1.40 level, which SHOULD coincide with new highs in equities and a push higher in commodities.

Cable daily chart

1.60 looked to be key level..but like AAPL probably more psychological with a lot of stops just below. More important should be 1,5970
tentative EW labeling ! Maybe we are poised for wave iii up. Target 1.63 and beyond

A drop below 1.5830 changes things

AAPL daily

NDX daily chart

The GAP up has not been filled (BULLISH)
looks to be forming BULL flag between 2710 and 2750
A sustained break above 2750 could target 2890 (measured move)

NDX weekly chart

Chart is pretty self explanatory
a sustained break above the rectangle  and we could see similar move to August 2012

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