USD JPY target

Just a reminder of a USD/JPY chart I posted on Dec 3rd

Yesterday's late rally..and other things

Just remembered the chart of USD/JPY..we are at 87.91...
the target from the flag is 85...keep eye on this as may be a turning point...

USD weakness vs JPY has been positively correlated..ie weak USD weak market !!

Will be in France next week skiing..Samoens..

back Feb 1st!

Euro USD chart

Quick look at the EURO vs $...

Looks like at critical junction...

We had the break out at 1.3058 in DEC, now retesting that level..will it hold? Also descending trendline..a break above that should bring us a new rally leg... Trading below 1.30 wil lbring us back into the range we had November to December

If we get a test of 1.3058 and hold ..I will go long there, and also on a good break of the dotted trendline.

A rally in euro would also tie in with a rally in equities...targeting the underside of the wedges (9600 DOW, 4400 FTSE, 4900 DAX).

gardening...

It's the season for planting! About 400 onions, broad beans, caulis, broccoli, mange tout, cabbages already in the ground...

garlic, butter nut squash to go in next week...

sore back..now I know why the old guys from Alhaurin walk around slowly and hunched!

US holiday on Monday...so more work in the garden..

chicken coop is on the list this year....!

Crude oil longer term

Copy and paste link below for interesting thoughts on crude

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=994375164

Another fall to a new low might be needed to end this dramatic move down...while oil is falling can't see any rally in equities..

Short term play to upside if this happens..key level to watch 30 usd; significantly below that 17 usd...

DOW possible path for the move down?

chart shows possible down move action. remember NOTHING goes down in a straight line!! Ideally with wedges should get a retest of the bottom of the wedge..which would be a GREAT short opportunity...(the stop would be as shown...so RR would be good). If nimble a long position once this 1st wave down has finished...or hedge shorts...

keep eye on Euro weakness (weak euro = weak equities - at least for last 6 months!) Also Crude oil no rally here yet ...are we going to test 18???? If so does not bode well for equities...

will look at crude long term chart next post

More DAX

shorter time frame chart...

self explanatory (more or less)..anyway ties in with 3500 target mentioned in previous post.

posted on trade2win.com
Looks like we have broken wedge pattern so theoretical downside target 3510..obviously NOT in a straight line...so if not already short I personally would wait for next rally, unless you can play the momentum (more risky) and short it here (maybe drill down to smaller time frame and see resistance support levels for stops and intermediate targets. Quite often we get a retest of the wedge...but that would be a longer term move..

DAX

self explanatory chart...

if we are in next move down the target should be Nov lows first, and then 3500 which is a 78.6 % retrace of move up from 2003..:)

If so strategy is to sell any strong rallies...LONG positions ONLY for the nimble!!

New Year !!.....same old market...

2009 has arrived and the markets are still in the same old patterns...today we may be on verge of a breakdown...if so how far will we go???

DOW chart: looks like a break down through the wedge will see 8350 first, then a test of the Nov lows at 7450....a significant break through here (3% plus) means we could get as low as 5900 see WEEKLY chart.

OR we get a FALSE BREAK of November lows, followed by a longer term INTERMEDIATE rally

anyway JURY still OUT

4th Quarter earnings season starts this week..MAY give some clue to the direction we will take.

ALSO : OIL, EURO have been weak (and in the past year have been positively correlated with the equity markets).

Rangebound..wedges?

Olive pruning time...25 trees pruned...ready for next year...

On to markets..Equity markets look range bound...forming wedges (bearish patterns..) and looks like a few more weeks left to complete...THEN another leg down?

Meanwhile Xmas trading will be light and volatile...Santa Claus rally next week? ..though most peopel are EXPECTING one...will he be giving out pieces of COAL this year?

Oil tried to rally but failed....not good for the equity markets. Gold could be in period of consolidation after a nice run up, but as interest rates around the world head to ZERO, Gold becomes more attractive to investors.

Some more CRUDE thoughts

Crude oil and commodities generally have had a good rally over the last 2 days. Spotlight on crude..it has broken above 3rd descending fanline so we may have a push to 62 (65.3 is a 23.8 % retrace of fall from 150). Initial resistance at 48 (being tested today) then 55.5... this rally would tie in with the rally in equities and euro (also seems to have cleared resistance today).

Possible reverse Head and shoulders DOW target 10040!

See chart...pull back to 8500 8450 level...BUY looking for 10040...stop 8125..risk 375 reward 1540...

LOOKS like shorter term trading the order of the day...for a while...Santa rally...
BUT on the daily looks like we need a close above 10500 for things to change to bullish longer term...

Look for commodities to confirm the und OIL GOLD etc etc...also a weaker dollar...if those are not there SUSPECT the rally!

Yesterday's late rally..and other things

Yesterday's late rally in Dow looked like either PPT or BUY programs...OIL, GOLD and EURO did not follow...so looked like a classic bull trap...again..

Look at DOW chart above...

The KEY seems to be watch the YEN...a strong yen has been signal for continued selling...see JPY chart.

Any turnaround in markets should be signalled by weaker yen, stronger euro, and rising OIL...and other commodities...YES OIL is POSITIVELY correlated with stocks over the long term..ie OIL falls stocks fall, oil rises stocks rise. Look at any long term charts of oil and dow...

Taking the red path (for now)

Look at charts in previous post...seems we are taking the red path for now..but we may be in process of setting up for a higher low and then a more sustained rally? The key will be the lows in November holding....Looking at various weekly charts..EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, OIL....all look oversold...however on daily charts most have formed flags....so another leg down may be on the cards.... see charts above...

This leg down may be short and sharp...final exhaustion...last of the sellers - at least for a while!!

THANKS ! giving

WOW what a rally.....

Still seems a bear rally...very convenient before Thanksgiving...definitely for the govt better than falling before Thanksgiving. The US markets are given a lot of air time in USA so psychologically a big rally ahead of one of the MOST important shopping days in the calendar will definitely give some boost of confidence...how much? Probably not significant...WHO will be borrowing more money??

The best idea so far is from McHugh (www.technicalindicatorindex.com) rebate all taxes paid in last 10 years. This would give the "man on the street" MONEY in his pocket. Raise consumption taxes (VAT, IVA, sales tax etc), and let people DECIDE what to do with their money. Giving BILLIONS to banks will not solve anything...apart form keeping them in the manner they are accustomed to! By giving money to the BASE of the PYRAMID..it will pave a way for a more sustained recovery. NO MORE BAIL OUTS for badly managed companies...let them FAIL...let small to mid size companies take their place..in the future these will be the large companies of today...

The governments can then recoup some on consumption taxes (NOT income), and as the economy improves, so will tax revenues from corporations.

to the chart above

Dow testing the lower channel it broke down out of...so....if we break back in to the channel it may have been a FALSE break lower..and we may stay in channel ( probably need to get above 8930 )...upper line of channel is 10053 so we may get trading range of 8800-10100 for a while..

9600-9800 is RESISTANCE..

IF we break down from here ...WATCH OUT BELOW...

Look at the banking index chart as well..approaching resistance..if it gets through there may reach descending trendline....IF

The final capitulation

Well we got the break in the DOW below 8k, very quickly to 7500...personally would be looking to buy something soon for the quick pop...

7k? Oil also down to interesting levels.... GOLD steady...

Looks like maybe one more BIG panic day down or two ..and then we rally...

HOWEVER... the more the govts feel obliged to intervene the lower we may go and the pops will be not so large!

Keep eye on dollar..one more move up vs other currencies...and then that may be it..will look to GBP near 1.40...

euro yen near 95-100

euro usd - 1.19

Still the same picture...

Have a look at DOW chart..still the same picture. Some newsletters I read are slowly turning bullish - SHORT term only....but the picture seems to say we are just consolidating the recent sharp down move. Support at 8000 in DOW...is everybody bottom picking there? If so a move below that level decisively will put the targets mentioned in previous post in sight!

PPT? are they holding back the tide? Will the dam finally burst? Will the US carmakers get a bail out? If so - WHAT FOR? As with AIG, some banks, and in general badly run companies, they should be allowed to FAIL - free market forces. They are dinosaurs, make way for the small mammals !!

I am still waiting for the final capitulation....maybe it will be after one more rally to top of trend channel (see graph)...only a clear break above 9800 on good volume will change the picture medium term... let's get it over with SOONER rather than later!!

Beware full Moon! November 13th...

Full moon Thursday 13th Nov...

full moon has known effects on behaviour of lots of animals (include humans in that category!)

Could be we get the panic day soon..the way the market is behaving today...(wednesday 12th) no mercy for "buyers", will they capitulate soon? And at what level....

7200-7600 DOW....best case 5600 worst case..

Gold and oil also being pulled lower..where will OIL be in 3 -5 years? Will Asia (China, India etc etc) stop wanting cars? Will we all be on electric cars? OIL will be a buy soon, however psychology is ruling the markets - be careful short term...

OR...

Will the full moon initiate full blown lunacy ? A HUGE rally from these levels? Who knows ? Trade what you see...

DAX "AFTER"

This is the "after" view ("before" is in previous post) Now what? Is this a correction of the recent rally ? OR will we head to new lows....difficult decisions...middle of the range....if short then stop would have to be above recent high, if long stop below the OCT lows...BIG range HIGH risk. PERSONALLY - MHO only !! I feel a test and possible break of October lows is on the cards...before we get the TRADEABLE rally (ie 3-4 months) and possibly 25-30 % up move...when will we get to the lows? over next 2 weeks...so whilst bearish for the short term will be looking at BUYS if we get the break of OCT lows. Other things I am looking at - GOLD a move to below 700 would have me put on buying boots again, and also as a LONG term play - OIL near 50 USD, I would start accumulating

DAX time for a correction?

DAX has rallied 25 % off the low at 4000, too much too soon? On shorter term charts also showing a wedge formation (usually bearish), once we break below we should see a correction of this rally - if not new market lows...ALso volume has been falling on the rally...maybe a throwover of top line then - fall..

As I said in previous posts..we need to build a base for a longer term sustainable rally..

too much , too soon? or too much - too late?

Markets rally 10 % in ONE day !- mainly shorts covering positions, and the fact that markets are SEVERELY oversold SHORT TERM.. - so what does that mean? Mainly that long term investors have not had time to commit "new" money to the market...LONGER term problems have not been solved - expect more volatile trading and possibly one more LEG down..


so what would be ideal ? Another test of the lows and a few weeks trading near the lows - giving time to build a base the (maybe) we can move up over the medium term....

Quick moves like yesterdays are hot air - and when it cools down it all comes crashing down again -


Interest rates cut to 1% in US of A - will it really make a difference? to the main news headlines it will - and MAYBE add a little confidence to the market - BUT in reality the problems we face are caused by too much debt and too few savings...cutting to 1% hardly encouraging new savings! Plus with all the liquidity being given to banks interest rates are effectively already at 1 % or lower - but not to the MAN in the street....