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Mood!

Monday, March 5, 2012

Waiting...

Still waiting for the markets to move one way or other..
FTSE still stuck in 100 point range, DAX near resistance at 7000, DOW near 13,000, NASDAQ Comp near 3000...

FTSE 


DAX


The large black arrow shows the RESISTANCE it has to go through for additional gains.
Methinks not this time..




BUT................

some warning signs in other asset classes like currencies and commodities. OIL is weaker and  COPPER also seems to want a bigger retrace before any greater rally.

AUDUSD is struggling after an attempt at breaking out of a BULL FLAG ..CONSOLIDATION last week at 1.08.  If it doesn't do it soon, a failed break out is a good signal for a decent move the oppsoite way..ir DOWN vs USD.

On the MONTHLY chart some Elliott Wave numbering for fun..
Could it be we are seeing a truncated 5th wave?Truncation A truncated fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. It can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five subwaves, as illustrated in Figures 6 and 7. Truncation gives warning of underlying weakness or strength in the market. In application, a truncated fifth wave will often cut short an expected target. This annoyance is counterbalanced by its clear implications for persistence in the new direction of trend.

Here is a graphical representation of a truncated 5th wave

 

and here is the AUDUSD monthly chart





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