Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future too.

— Marcus Aurelius


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Thursday, March 22, 2012

Where are we?

Well "where are we?"  Well markets are near a TOP (IMHO) but today the equity markets are correcting, as is the fall in the YEN vs various currencies.  To get an idea where we could be, I look at the DAX, and even though ELLIOTT WAVE theory is not a good PREDICTIVE tool, looking back at where we have been can give us clues to WHERE we MAY be going !

so a look at the DAX daily chart

The preferred count is in RED (looks cleaner) which means we are now in a wave 4, and once this is complete we will head up in the last wave 5 to new highs (or equal if a truncated 5th)

If the count in BLACK is correct we should now start a LARGER correction or a change in trend to DOWN.  

looking at AAPL and equity markets it "feels" like we have just finished wave 3's (Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend  The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. )


This is classic wave 3 sentiment, prices rising rapidly, those wanting to get in on a pullback miss the boat and have to pay higher prices, analysts all getting bullish...crowd joining in big time!!

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